The tech world has recently been rocked by the news that Microsoft, having failed to reinstate Sam Altman as OpenAI’s CEO, has now appointed him as the CEO of the Advanced AI Research Group at Microsoft. The question that arises is whether Microsoft can leverage Sam Altman’s leadership to achieve another AI breakthrough akin to ChatGPT. However, my optimism is tempered.
Large companies are not typically known for their speed and innovation. Their strength lies in providing resources for startups to scale. Google, for example, has had to place its bets on DeepMind due to its inability to move quickly. Microsoft may find it difficult to escape this fate of being big and slow.
Investors may find some stability in Microsoft’s fluctuating stock price, but achieving technological breakthroughs and advancing enterprise endeavors, including those led by Sam Altman, remains a formidable challenge. AI luminaries departing from institutions like OpenAI and DeepMind have struggled to establish their own domains, underscoring the rarity of success in the startup landscape. It’s not a question of Sam Altman’s legendary status or Microsoft’s greatness, but the odds of a startup achieving success are indeed slim — approximately one in a million. The constraints faced by large companies in executing tasks rapidly, precisely, and with determination are bound by physical laws.
Moreover, Sam Altman’s departure from OpenAI was influenced, in part, by “personnel disputes” within the board. As he prepares to join Microsoft, an organization with a more capable workforce, the intricacies of personnel relations are bound to intensify. The looming question is whether Sam Altman can replicate the nimbleness and efficiency characteristic of a small startup within the expansive corporate structure, allowing for continual experimentation, innovation, and breakthroughs amidst potential pitfalls.
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